Beans & LegumesIt Turns Out They Were Wrong…Or Were They?
Hurricane Season is on its way out. If you recall, the experts we’re saying that this season was going to be an extremely active season. Were they wrong?
Ironically they were right…and wrong. An average hurricane season will produce approximately 10 storms, 6 of which become hurricanes. This year (to date) we have seen 15 named storms. So if we go purely on number of storms the expert nailed it, we did in fact have an active season.
But, if there were more storms this year, why did it seem so quiet? And the answer to that is where they were wrong. As far as the USA is concerned nothing has really hit land fall that’s had any staying power.
“A couple of relatively minor impacts and some flooding and that’s what we’d have to show for it,” Bill Read, U.S. National Hurricane Center Director said.
Apparently predicting landfall is more difficult to predict. An example of this is Colorado State University’s forecasters had predicted a 76% chance that a major hurricane would make landfall on the U.S. coastline. For the last century the average has been 52%.
Now, as we look at the outcome of this years Hurricane Season, what lessons can we take from it and apply it to our future emergency preparation efforts?
- Regardless of what the experts say, most disasters are extremely unpredictable. Disasters don’t cater to the experts and may hit (or in this case not hit) unexpectedly.
- Preparation isn’t wasted on the disaster that didn’t come.
- When it comes to disasters, past outcomes do not necessarily determine future outcomes.
As you commonly hear in the emergency preparedness arena, it’s better to be prepared a year early then a second late. The reality is, though the hurricanes didn’t hit like they were predicted we know that disasters can literally be just around the corner and the best insurance for you and your family is to take the time to be prepared before it happens.
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Emergency preparedness is a can’t lose proposition. The only thing better than being fully prepared when disaster strikes is realizing that the disaster you prepared for isn’t going to happen. It’s kind of like medical insurance. You might spend a lot of money on it but you pray daily that ever dime you spent is completely wasted!
October 17th, 2010 at 11:27 pmThis article really hit home. A few yrs back here in FL we had lost power for 2 whole weeks where we live. I am X military police and was expecting help a lot quicker then we received it. It took the Army and Red Cross over a week and a half to bring MRE’s, water, and supplies to our neighboring town 20 minutes away. Many families could not get the food and when those that could they did not ration enough for those who needed it. We were lucky we were the only ones prepared in our neighborhood. We never expected just a few downed electric lines could create such chaos but it did. We always make sure because of those 2 weeks we are packed and ready with supplies. Trust me when I say it is better to have emergency supplies when needed then not have them and need them!
October 18th, 2010 at 5:14 amWhen Isabell hit southeast Virginia many years ago, my wife said I was wasting time and money by preparing. When we woke in the morning and I was able to give her a cup of coffee she was amazed. I didn’t have a perfect plan, we had no generator, but what I did have got us through 10 days without power. To this day she admits that things would have been alot different had I not stocked water, canned goods and fuel for the camp stove.
October 18th, 2010 at 4:56 pmDuring IKE, we were without power for almost 2 weeks!!It was still hot and we lost most of the food in our freezer.
October 18th, 2010 at 9:46 pmLuckily, the best survival tool I had was a little folding coleman stove and canned heat. I was able to cook much of what was in our freezers, and we were able to have our coffee and tea. Funny what small creature comforts we treasure during a disaster.
Since this disaster, I am freshly supplied with 2 folding stoves and lots of canned heat, battery operated LCD tv, battery operated fan and radio, flashlight lanterns, etc, and bought a case or two of MRE’s. I have plenty of canned goods and bottled water. Luckily, we were relatively storm free. Thanks to God!~! May the luck continue for us all!!
With the food and water,It’s not going to waste.All we do now is eat the food,and drink the water.Just buy more for a later time.I don’t see it as a waste of time or money.
October 18th, 2010 at 10:31 pmAs we look at the history of hurricanes that hit the U.S.
1.1989 Hugo Category 4.It was so strong that it cut strait north and died in lake Ontario.
2.1992 Andrew Category 4 when it cut acrossed Florida and just crushed a whole city,the moved across the Gulf and slame into Louisiana as a Category 3.
3.1995 Opal Category 4.
4.2004 Frances Category 4. Then Ivan Category 4.
5.2005 Dennis Category 4. Then Katrina Category 5.
I like reading these articles online and checking them out because they are interesting to read and always give other authors ideas again me as a write learn more from my mistakes to get better in writing or voice opinions and write comments.Thank you Edith
January 3rd, 2011 at 10:25 am